Underlying Inflation While headline inflation numbers looked scary in March due to energy and tariffs, Federal Reserve Governor Waller noted in a mid-April speech that “underlying inflation”—when you strip out the temporary effects of tariffs—is running very close to the 2.0% target. This suggests that once the current geopolitical and trade shocks settle, the core […]
Read MoreTag: Inflation
ByTheNumber$ – February 3rd, 2026
Global Growth Estimate Up Slightly The International Monetary Fund (IMF), a widely respected organization with 191 member countries, recently raised their global growth rate forecast from 3.2% to 3.3%. Doesn’t sound like much but it is an important data point that economists globally follow very closely. Interestingly, within that number they estimate that emerging and […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – January 14th, 2026
December Inflation Report The December 2025 inflation report held steady at 2.7% annually, matching November’s rate and meeting economists’ expectations. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist noted that the report doesn’t give the Federal Reserve what it needs to cut rates later this month. Investors are placing a 95% probability that rates will be held steady. Tariff […]
Read MoreMarkets & Uncertainty
What is Happening? At the risk of repeating what many have likely read or heard in the news, markets do not like uncertainty. Since January 6, the news and actions coming from Washington, DC have created a wave of uncertainty that is beginning to permeate its way through all sectors of the economy and the […]
Read More2024 Outlook – Positive Signs Continue to Grow
There are as many varied and opinionated 2024 outlooks as there are people and investment firms that publish them. If you just keep looking, you will eventually discover one that fits with what you are looking for. Taking a step back, it’s helpful to focus on key aspects of the financial markets instead of trying […]
Read MoreInterest Rate Outlook
Where to start? Here’s a quick summary of interest rates over the past two plus years. Leading up to the COVID pandemic, the Federal Reserve had embarked on a slow process of lowering the Fed Funds target rate from between 2% – 3% to 1% – 2%. When the pandemic went into full swing, they […]
Read More2023 Outlook – The Year Income Generation Returns
As the Covid pandemic unfolded in early 2020, interest rates on one-year government debt plunged from 1.5 % to near zero in a matter of weeks. From March of 2020 to near the end of 2021, the one-year rate hovered between 0.05% and 0.12%. Rates that low are almost irrelevant. As the Federal Reserve launched […]
Read MoreCommodities Sell-Off / Supply Chain Improving
The supercharged pricing surges across much of our economy and the global economy are showing signs of abating. The news flow on reversing pricing trends is picking up so I thought it was time to take another look at where things are regarding price trends in important commodities and the supply chain situation. Should these […]
Read MoreInvestor Mindset
The correction in the markets has been hard to bear. In the face of this decline in the markets, our commitment to long term investment strategies has not changed. We are in this for the long haul and our job is to help our clients manage their way through such times as these. “Loss aversion […]
Read MoreGrowth vs Value – Coming into Focus Again
Since the start of the year, the battle between growth and value is in full force. It actually began last quarter and picked up steam since December. I have written in the past how important bond yields are when it comes to valuing a company. The sharp rise in the widely followed 10 year US […]
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