Fed Chair Warsh’s First FOMC Meeting All eyes were on yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. In a unanimous decision, the Committee voted to hold the funds rate steady in the current range of 3.5%-3.75%. Nine of 18 members projected a rate hike this […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – June 6th, 2026
Strong May Jobs Report Last Friday, the May jobs report showed that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May, versus an estimated gain of 85,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care. The strong report, combined with solid gains in […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – May 8th, 2026
Earnings Reports Support Positive Forecasts Goldman Sachs put out some market views this week that express continued upside to US and global markets over the next 12 months. They forecast a 5.4% rise for the S&P 500, a 2.3% rise for the European STOXX index, and an 8.2% rise for the MSCI Emerging Markets index. […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – May 1st, 2026
GDP Bounce Back Following a dismal 0.5% GDP growth in Q4 2025, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported this week a 2% gain in Q1 2026 GDP. The bounce back is largely attributed to the recovery following the 43-day government shutdown. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis MD-11s Back in Business FedEx is preparing to bring […]
Read MoreMountain Capital Surpasses $1 Billion in AUM
Press Release: Mountain Capital Surpasses $1 Billion in AUM as Firm Marks 15 Years Serving the Aviation Community
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – April 16th, 2026
Underlying Inflation While headline inflation numbers looked scary in March due to energy and tariffs, Federal Reserve Governor Waller noted in a mid-April speech that “underlying inflation”—when you strip out the temporary effects of tariffs—is running very close to the 2.0% target. This suggests that once the current geopolitical and trade shocks settle, the core […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – April 8th, 2026
Consumer Confidence Rises The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for March rose to 91.8, beating economist expectations of 87.5. The index is benchmarked to 1985 and was assigned a value of 100. Above 100: Indicates a strong, growing economy with high optimism. Below 100: Suggests consumers are more cautious or pessimistic than they were in […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – March 26th, 2026
Resilient Job Market Initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 205,000 for the week ended March 14, coming in well below the consensus estimate of 214,000, a sign the job market remains resilient. Analysts describe the current environment as “slow hiring, slow firing”, a setup that often supports steady consumer spending even as hiring normalizes. […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – March 17th, 2026
ARMs Are Back Adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) all but about disappeared post the 2008 financial crisis, but are making a comeback. Higher mortgage rates are causing borrowers to take advantage of lower initial teaser rates while waiting for fixed rates to fall. What’s more, ARMs are less risky than they once were. The 2008 crisis […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – March 11th, 2026
FED Funds Rate Cut Unlikely This Month The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta produces data analysis that they use to estimate the probability of cuts in the Fed Funds rate. The next Fed meeting ends on March 18 with a rate decision that day. Their current estimate is a less than 3% chance of a […]
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