Jobless Claims Lowest Since 1970 New claims for US unemployment benefits hovered near 57-year lows last week, suggesting the labor market regained momentum after struggling through much of the summer and is so far weathering headwinds from the Middle East conflict. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. That said, worker shortages and retirements have […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – September 18th, 2026
Fed Rate Hike There was no surprise that the Fed raised the federal funds rate this week by a quarter point to a range of 3.75%-4%. The vote was unanimous. Now, all eyes are focused on the next meeting set for October 28-29. As of today, the bond futures markets are 50/50 that there will […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – September 10th, 2026
Strong Jobs Number Last Friday, you probably saw the news that the August Jobs Report was surprisingly strong. Estimates were for an increase of ~56,000. The report came in with 162,000 new jobs, the highest since March. Both June and July numbers were revised upward by a combined 55,000. These reports have raised the odds […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – September 3rd, 2026
Factory Orders Beat Earlier this week, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that factory orders rose 0.9%, beating the 0.7% forecast and a solid rebound from June’s -0.2% decline. Durable goods orders excluding defense held firm at +1.3% month over month. Signs of a resilient economy amid geopolitical turmoil and rising energy prices. Source: U.S. Census […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – August 28th, 2026
Strong Corporate Earnings In the face of much uncertainty heading into 2026, second quarter earnings reports have been strong. With about 91% of S&P 500 companies having reported, roughly 85% posted a positive earnings surprise, and index earnings are on pace to grow 48% year over year for the second quarter — the highest earnings […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – August 21st, 2026
US Treasury to Double Amount of Debt Buybacks On Wednesday of this week, the US Treasury Department moved to increase its weekly purchase of US debt from $2 billion to $4 billion. That additional demand helped bond prices rise, and interest rates fall. By day’s end, the yield on the widely followed 10-year Treasury bond […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – August 11th, 2026
Inflation on Target, Not Worse The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, fell 0.1% for the month of June, putting annual inflation at 3.7%, with core PCE in line with forecasts at a 3.3% annual rate. Not a big win, but not the upside inflation surprise markets were bracing for. The PCE […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – July 30th, 2026
FED Holds Rates Steady The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in its meeting this week. The interesting part of the story is that 3 of the 12 Fed Governors dissented by voting for a rate increase. Expectations have now risen that the Fed will hike rates by a quarter point at the September meeting. […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – July 10th, 2026
Resilient Labor Markets For the week ended June 27, initial jobless claims decreased by 1,000 to 215,000, below expectations of 221,000. The unemployment rate also improved, declining from 4.3% to 4.2%. Average hourly wages, a good barometer for consumer spending, grew by 3.5% year-over-year, matching expectations. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Investment Picking […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – July 1st, 2026
May Inflation Rise The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s primary price gauge, rose to its highest level since 2023, reinforcing the central bank’s recent tough talk on inflation. The “all items” PCE rose at a seasonally adjusted 4.1% annual rate, the highest since April 2023. Excluding food and energy, the PCE […]
Read More