Inflation on Target, Not Worse The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, fell 0.1% for the month of June, putting annual inflation at 3.7%, with core PCE in line with forecasts at a 3.3% annual rate. Not a big win, but not the upside inflation surprise markets were bracing for. The PCE […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – July 30th, 2026
FED Holds Rates Steady The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in its meeting this week. The interesting part of the story is that 3 of the 12 Fed Governors dissented by voting for a rate increase. Expectations have now risen that the Fed will hike rates by a quarter point at the September meeting. […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – July 10th, 2026
Resilient Labor Markets For the week ended June 27, initial jobless claims decreased by 1,000 to 215,000, below expectations of 221,000. The unemployment rate also improved, declining from 4.3% to 4.2%. Average hourly wages, a good barometer for consumer spending, grew by 3.5% year-over-year, matching expectations. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Investment Picking […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – July 1st, 2026
May Inflation Rise The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s primary price gauge, rose to its highest level since 2023, reinforcing the central bank’s recent tough talk on inflation. The “all items” PCE rose at a seasonally adjusted 4.1% annual rate, the highest since April 2023. Excluding food and energy, the PCE […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – June 18th, 2026
Fed Chair Warsh’s First FOMC Meeting All eyes were on yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. In a unanimous decision, the Committee voted to hold the funds rate steady in the current range of 3.5%-3.75%. Nine of 18 members projected a rate hike this […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – June 6th, 2026
Strong May Jobs Report Last Friday, the May jobs report showed that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May, versus an estimated gain of 85,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care. The strong report, combined with solid gains in […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – May 8th, 2026
Earnings Reports Support Positive Forecasts Goldman Sachs put out some market views this week that express continued upside to US and global markets over the next 12 months. They forecast a 5.4% rise for the S&P 500, a 2.3% rise for the European STOXX index, and an 8.2% rise for the MSCI Emerging Markets index. […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – May 1st, 2026
GDP Bounce Back Following a dismal 0.5% GDP growth in Q4 2025, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported this week a 2% gain in Q1 2026 GDP. The bounce back is largely attributed to the recovery following the 43-day government shutdown. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis MD-11s Back in Business FedEx is preparing to bring […]
Read MoreMountain Capital Surpasses $1 Billion in AUM
Press Release: Mountain Capital Surpasses $1 Billion in AUM as Firm Marks 15 Years Serving the Aviation Community
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – April 16th, 2026
Underlying Inflation While headline inflation numbers looked scary in March due to energy and tariffs, Federal Reserve Governor Waller noted in a mid-April speech that “underlying inflation”—when you strip out the temporary effects of tariffs—is running very close to the 2.0% target. This suggests that once the current geopolitical and trade shocks settle, the core […]
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