Jobless Claims Lowest Since 1970 New claims for US unemployment benefits hovered near 57-year lows last week, suggesting the labor market regained momentum after struggling through much of the summer and is so far weathering headwinds from the Middle East conflict. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. That said, worker shortages and retirements have […]
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ByTheNumber$ – September 18th, 2026
Fed Rate Hike There was no surprise that the Fed raised the federal funds rate this week by a quarter point to a range of 3.75%-4%. The vote was unanimous. Now, all eyes are focused on the next meeting set for October 28-29. As of today, the bond futures markets are 50/50 that there will […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – September 3rd, 2026
Factory Orders Beat Earlier this week, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that factory orders rose 0.9%, beating the 0.7% forecast and a solid rebound from June’s -0.2% decline. Durable goods orders excluding defense held firm at +1.3% month over month. Signs of a resilient economy amid geopolitical turmoil and rising energy prices. Source: U.S. Census […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – August 28th, 2026
Strong Corporate Earnings In the face of much uncertainty heading into 2026, second quarter earnings reports have been strong. With about 91% of S&P 500 companies having reported, roughly 85% posted a positive earnings surprise, and index earnings are on pace to grow 48% year over year for the second quarter — the highest earnings […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – July 1st, 2026
May Inflation Rise The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s primary price gauge, rose to its highest level since 2023, reinforcing the central bank’s recent tough talk on inflation. The “all items” PCE rose at a seasonally adjusted 4.1% annual rate, the highest since April 2023. Excluding food and energy, the PCE […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – April 16th, 2026
Underlying Inflation While headline inflation numbers looked scary in March due to energy and tariffs, Federal Reserve Governor Waller noted in a mid-April speech that “underlying inflation”—when you strip out the temporary effects of tariffs—is running very close to the 2.0% target. This suggests that once the current geopolitical and trade shocks settle, the core […]
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