Jobless Claims Lowest Since 1970 New claims for US unemployment benefits hovered near 57-year lows last week, suggesting the labor market regained momentum after struggling through much of the summer and is so far weathering headwinds from the Middle East conflict. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. That said, worker shortages and retirements have […]
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ByTheNumber$ – September 10th, 2026
Strong Jobs Number Last Friday, you probably saw the news that the August Jobs Report was surprisingly strong. Estimates were for an increase of ~56,000. The report came in with 162,000 new jobs, the highest since March. Both June and July numbers were revised upward by a combined 55,000. These reports have raised the odds […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – April 16th, 2026
Underlying Inflation While headline inflation numbers looked scary in March due to energy and tariffs, Federal Reserve Governor Waller noted in a mid-April speech that “underlying inflation”—when you strip out the temporary effects of tariffs—is running very close to the 2.0% target. This suggests that once the current geopolitical and trade shocks settle, the core […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – March 11th, 2026
FED Funds Rate Cut Unlikely This Month The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta produces data analysis that they use to estimate the probability of cuts in the Fed Funds rate. The next Fed meeting ends on March 18 with a rate decision that day. Their current estimate is a less than 3% chance of a […]
Read More2024 Housing Outlook
As 2024 begins to unfold, housing market trends are one of the most talked about aspects of the year ahead. There are a number of factors at play when it comes to trying to understand how we got here and what we can expect in 2024. It’s obvious the surge in home values began as […]
Read MoreThe Silver Lining in Rising Interest Rates
For several years now, investors have been living in a world of historically low interest rates. For those in retirement or near retirement, that has not been the best world in terms of conservative income generation with which to live on. It also hasn’t been great for those who are contributing to regular savings accounts […]
Read MoreWhat’s Up with the Housing Market?
It’s lost on no one that the past year was one of the craziest years in the housing market since who knows when… and it continues today. A lot has been written about what has been going on, so I am not going to get into a bunch of statistics (well, maybe a couple). Instead, […]
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