Inflation on Target, Not Worse The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, fell 0.1% for the month of June, putting annual inflation at 3.7%, with core PCE in line with forecasts at a 3.3% annual rate. Not a big win, but not the upside inflation surprise markets were bracing for. The PCE […]
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ByTheNumber$ – July 1st, 2026
May Inflation Rise The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s primary price gauge, rose to its highest level since 2023, reinforcing the central bank’s recent tough talk on inflation. The “all items” PCE rose at a seasonally adjusted 4.1% annual rate, the highest since April 2023. Excluding food and energy, the PCE […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – May 8th, 2026
Earnings Reports Support Positive Forecasts Goldman Sachs put out some market views this week that express continued upside to US and global markets over the next 12 months. They forecast a 5.4% rise for the S&P 500, a 2.3% rise for the European STOXX index, and an 8.2% rise for the MSCI Emerging Markets index. […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – March 17th, 2026
ARMs Are Back Adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) all but about disappeared post the 2008 financial crisis, but are making a comeback. Higher mortgage rates are causing borrowers to take advantage of lower initial teaser rates while waiting for fixed rates to fall. What’s more, ARMs are less risky than they once were. The 2008 crisis […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – February 24th, 2026
P&W Engine Shortage Hits Airbus Last Thursday, Airbus announced that they will be delivering fewer aircraft than expected this year due to shortages of Pratt & Whitney (P&W) engines. Airbus has struggled to source everything from seats to toilets. The shortage has forced a slowdown in production of their bestselling A320. Apparently, P&W has been […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – February 12th, 2026
Housing Affordability The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta published their updated housing affordability monitor this week. The “Affordability Gap”, defined as the gap between actual median household income and qualified income, is currently 40%, well above the 30% gap normally required to qualify for a standard home loan. The gap began to widen rapidly beginning […]
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