“Acts OF God” Expectations United Airlines has navigated the Wall Street earnings guidance game quite well since CFO Mike Leskinen took over in 2023. He began including the possibility of exogenous events in setting financial expectations. “We try to set it in a way that the vast majority of the time we will hit it,” […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – February 24th, 2026
P&W Engine Shortage Hits Airbus Last Thursday, Airbus announced that they will be delivering fewer aircraft than expected this year due to shortages of Pratt & Whitney (P&W) engines. Airbus has struggled to source everything from seats to toilets. The shortage has forced a slowdown in production of their bestselling A320. Apparently, P&W has been […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – February 12th, 2026
Housing Affordability The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta published their updated housing affordability monitor this week. The “Affordability Gap”, defined as the gap between actual median household income and qualified income, is currently 40%, well above the 30% gap normally required to qualify for a standard home loan. The gap began to widen rapidly beginning […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – February 3rd, 2026
Global Growth Estimate Up Slightly The International Monetary Fund (IMF), a widely respected organization with 191 member countries, recently raised their global growth rate forecast from 3.2% to 3.3%. Doesn’t sound like much but it is an important data point that economists globally follow very closely. Interestingly, within that number they estimate that emerging and […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – January 26th, 2026
Business Inflation Expectations Decline The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released the results of their January survey of business year ahead unit cost inflation expectations showing a decline from 2.2% in December to 2.0%. Two-thirds of firms surveyed have active job openings, with many citing normal turnover as the primary reason. Many firms see a […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – January 14th, 2026
December Inflation Report The December 2025 inflation report held steady at 2.7% annually, matching November’s rate and meeting economists’ expectations. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist noted that the report doesn’t give the Federal Reserve what it needs to cut rates later this month. Investors are placing a 95% probability that rates will be held steady. Tariff […]
Read MoreMarkets & Uncertainty
What is Happening? At the risk of repeating what many have likely read or heard in the news, markets do not like uncertainty. Since January 6, the news and actions coming from Washington, DC have created a wave of uncertainty that is beginning to permeate its way through all sectors of the economy and the […]
Read MoreSocial Security – Something Has to Give, Eventually
It should come as no shock to anyone that it is only a matter of when the current way Social Security benefits will need to be adjusted, not if. When it comes to how and when it should happen is the proverbial elephant in the room. It’s safe to say that the “when” has been […]
Read MoreMarket Performance During Election Years & After
The punchline to my commentary here is that presidential election outcomes have little to do with long term market performance. That said, there are several ways people have analyzed stock market performance to try and come up with ways to predict moves based on party control of the White House, House and Senate. Below is […]
Read More2024 Housing Outlook
As 2024 begins to unfold, housing market trends are one of the most talked about aspects of the year ahead. There are a number of factors at play when it comes to trying to understand how we got here and what we can expect in 2024. It’s obvious the surge in home values began as […]
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