Consumer Confidence Rises The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for March rose to 91.8, beating economist expectations of 87.5. The index is benchmarked to 1985 and was assigned a value of 100. Above 100: Indicates a strong, growing economy with high optimism. Below 100: Suggests consumers are more cautious or pessimistic than they were in […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – March 26th, 2026
Resilient Job Market Initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 205,000 for the week ended March 14, coming in well below the consensus estimate of 214,000, a sign the job market remains resilient. Analysts describe the current environment as “slow hiring, slow firing”, a setup that often supports steady consumer spending even as hiring normalizes. […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – March 17th, 2026
ARMs Are Back Adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) all but about disappeared post the 2008 financial crisis, but are making a comeback. Higher mortgage rates are causing borrowers to take advantage of lower initial teaser rates while waiting for fixed rates to fall. What’s more, ARMs are less risky than they once were. The 2008 crisis […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – March 11th, 2026
FED Funds Rate Cut Unlikely This Month The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta produces data analysis that they use to estimate the probability of cuts in the Fed Funds rate. The next Fed meeting ends on March 18 with a rate decision that day. Their current estimate is a less than 3% chance of a […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – March 4th, 2026
“Acts OF God” Expectations United Airlines has navigated the Wall Street earnings guidance game quite well since CFO Mike Leskinen took over in 2023. He began including the possibility of exogenous events in setting financial expectations. “We try to set it in a way that the vast majority of the time we will hit it,” […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – February 24th, 2026
P&W Engine Shortage Hits Airbus Last Thursday, Airbus announced that they will be delivering fewer aircraft than expected this year due to shortages of Pratt & Whitney (P&W) engines. Airbus has struggled to source everything from seats to toilets. The shortage has forced a slowdown in production of their bestselling A320. Apparently, P&W has been […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – February 12th, 2026
Housing Affordability The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta published their updated housing affordability monitor this week. The “Affordability Gap”, defined as the gap between actual median household income and qualified income, is currently 40%, well above the 30% gap normally required to qualify for a standard home loan. The gap began to widen rapidly beginning […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – February 3rd, 2026
Global Growth Estimate Up Slightly The International Monetary Fund (IMF), a widely respected organization with 191 member countries, recently raised their global growth rate forecast from 3.2% to 3.3%. Doesn’t sound like much but it is an important data point that economists globally follow very closely. Interestingly, within that number they estimate that emerging and […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – January 26th, 2026
Business Inflation Expectations Decline The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released the results of their January survey of business year ahead unit cost inflation expectations showing a decline from 2.2% in December to 2.0%. Two-thirds of firms surveyed have active job openings, with many citing normal turnover as the primary reason. Many firms see a […]
Read MoreByTheNumber$ – January 14th, 2026
December Inflation Report The December 2025 inflation report held steady at 2.7% annually, matching November’s rate and meeting economists’ expectations. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist noted that the report doesn’t give the Federal Reserve what it needs to cut rates later this month. Investors are placing a 95% probability that rates will be held steady. Tariff […]
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