FED Funds Rate Cut Unlikely This Month
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta produces data analysis that they use to estimate the probability of cuts in the Fed Funds rate. The next Fed meeting ends on March 18 with a rate decision that day. Their current estimate is a less than 3% chance of a quarter-point cut, down from a 29% probability of a cut at the start of the year.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Keep Those Records
If you plan to sell a home and want that $250,000 ($500,000 for a married couple) exemption, you’d better have good records. To claim that you have lived in the home as your primary residence for two of the preceding five years, you must have filed taxes in the state, have an in-state driver’s license, and have bills sent to the address. For those trying to sell an investment property or vacation home, the IRS is watching. And you’d better keep good records if you want to raise the cost basis of a property
Source: Wall Street Journal
Prediction Market Fun
Rumors began circulating, prior to the Super Bowl, about whether Jeff Bezos or Mark Wahlberg would attend the event. One was tied to Bezos’ stepson, who was rumored to have said that his stepdad would not attend. Wahlberg’s daughter was rumored to say her dad was attending. Neither attended. The rumors spread quickly in chat rooms and generated more than $24 million in trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi, two major prediction markets, deny that insider information is the culprit, even though Kalshi recently closed two insider trading cases.
Source: Wall Street Journal
Lego Love
Founded in 1932, The LEGO Group remains a private company based in Denmark. Yesterday, the company reported record 2025 performance, outpacing the rest of the toy industry. In 2025, revenue grew 12% to $12.1 billion, and net profit grew 21% to $2.4 billion. If you are like me, you failed to keep the correct LEGO blocks for each specific design separate, and now you simply have a big box of miscellaneous pieces to make your own creations.
Source: The LEGO Group
Housing Market Improving
Sales of previously owned US homes unexpectedly rose in February, and the prior month was revised up, helped by a decline in mortgage rates and modest growth in asking prices. Contract closings increased 1.7% to a 4.09 million annualized rate, according to National Association of Realtors data released yesterday. Affordability is improving with the drop in mortgage rates and home price growth.
Source: National Association of Realtors, Bloomberg
Telephone Birthday
Yesterday marked 150 years since Alexander Graham Bell made the first telephone call from his Boston lab to his assistant in a nearby room. The breakthrough came just days after Bell received a patent for telephone technology, four days after his 29th birthday. Nearly 100 years after Bell’s first phone call, Motorola engineer Marty Cooper made the first cellphone call.
Source: Smithsonian Institute
