Strong Jobs Number
Last Friday, you probably saw the news that the August Jobs Report was surprisingly strong. Estimates were for an increase of ~56,000. The report came in with 162,000 new jobs, the highest since March. Both June and July numbers were revised upward by a combined 55,000. These reports have raised the odds of a fed funds rate hike from 52% to 59% at the upcoming September 16 Fed meeting. Strong job growth gives the Fed room to prioritize fighting inflation without damaging employment.
Source: Yahoo Finance, CNBC
Coast FI
Interest in Coast Financial Independence, an offshoot of the Financial Independence/Early Retirement movement, is surging. The approach encourages extreme savings early in your career to lead to early retirement. But instead of retiring early, it marks the point at which you no longer need to make retirement contributions, so you can reduce your income to bare necessities, giving you time to pursue other goals. That point is the timeframe where what you have saved can be forecasted to grow to the amount of money you feel you will need when you plan on retiring. The risk is that this approach does not consider is that “life happens” and “things change”. Google search interest is up 50% over the past year, and Financial Influencers on TikTok garner hundreds of thousands of views on the topic. Just beware, the simplicity of this approach makes it difficult to rely on.
Source: Wall Street Journal
Pensions Making a Comeback
Remember when companies used to offer pension plans? Many young workers today likely don’t. Unlike 401(k)s, pensions are typically paid for by employers and offer a retirement check for life. The plans, already in decline, were hit hard by the 2008 financial crisis, when stocks plummeted, and new funding requirements forced many companies to contribute more to shore them up. Many companies froze their plans to stop benefits from accruing, moving employees into 401(k)s. Labor unions are beginning to force employers back into pension plans to settle labor negotiations.
Source: Wall Street Journal
Home Prices Falling
Realtor.com analysis found prices declined most sharply in several metro areas that saw rapid growth during the COVID-19 pandemic. Sellers are increasingly adjusting prices due to elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges. Median list prices declined across three of the nation’s four regions, falling 3.6% in the Northeast, 2.6% in the South, and 2.1% in the West. Prices were unchanged in the Midwest. Seems the market is normalizing after years of crazy price appreciation.
Source: Realtor.com, Yahoo Finance
iPhone Ultra
Yesterday, Apple introduced the iPhone Ultra, the first foldable phone in the lineup with a rumored base retail price of $2,000. Interestingly, Apple’s stock has gained in the 60 days following an iPhone reveal day 17 times, dating back to the 2007 smartphone launch. The biggest gain was 20%, recorded 60 days after the iPhone 11 reveal in 2019. You can pre-order beginning this Friday, with sales likely to begin September 18. Reports suggest that supply will be very limited at first but up to full steam by October.
Source: Yahoo Finance, Bank of America Research
On This Day
DRUNK DRIVING – On September 10, 1897, the first drunk driving arrest occurred. George Smith, a London taxi driver, became the first person ever to be arrested for drunk driving. It wasn’t difficult for police officers to identify their suspect, as Smith had done a bit more than just swerve over a yellow line. Police arrived to find that he had smashed his cab into the side of a building. Police arrested Smith, and he ultimately pleaded guilty to driving under the influence of alcohol. They fined him 25 shillings.
Source: Britannica
What is It About September 9?
Statistics show that yesterday, September 9th, is the most common birthday. Pregnancies are supposed to last 38 weeks from conception, so babies born on September 9 would have likely been conceived on December 17. The reasons behind this surge of September babies are likely couples spending more time indoors during the colder months of the year and the holiday season. Some people tend to work less as the holidays approach, so there is more time to party-hop, drink a few more cocktails than usual, and the rest is clear.
Source: Popular Science
