Global Growth Estimate Up Slightly
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), a widely respected organization with 191 member countries, recently raised their global growth rate forecast from 3.2% to 3.3%. Doesn’t sound like much but it is an important data point that economists globally follow very closely. Interestingly, within that number they estimate that emerging and developing economies will grow 4.4% while advanced economies are estimated at 1.7%. Of all economies followed, India comes out on top with a growth forecast of 7.3%.
Source: International Monetary Fund
Inflation Inequalities
Using NielsenIQ Retail Scanner data, studies found that consumers experienced higher food inflation in poorer areas relative to richer areas from 2006 to 2020. During this period, annualized food inflation was half a percentage point higher in the poorest decile of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) relative to the richest decile of MSAs. A contributing factor is the lack of retailer concentration in the poorest MSAs relative to the richest MSAs. That added a cumulative 8.8% to inflation over that period.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
AI Uses A Lot Of Water
Besides blowing out energy demands globally, artificial intelligence data centers are rapidly draining water supplies at many of their locations. The 2026 global demand for water, used for cooling the data centers, is expected to reach 450 million gallons per day. Yes, per day. Tech giants and local agricultural communities are going at each other in the fight for water rights. It’s estimated that a single page of text via a model like ChatGPT uses roughly the same amount of water to grow one small radish. [Full disclosure, I used Google Gemini to source some this information].
Source: Mistral AI, Tech Policy Press
Rainmaker Cometh With Drones
Rainmaker Technology, based in Salt Lake City, estimates that it costs about $30 to produce 325,000 gallons of water utilizing drones to seed the clouds with silver iodide, an inorganic compound, and harmless to humans. Snowmaking is more expensive and uses more water than it produces. The company operates about 100 drones across the western skies for clients such as the Snowbird Resort. Colorado officials are watching results this year in anticipation of employing the units to fight fires as well as generate much needed winter snow.
Source: Bloomberg
Five Below Not So Much
Beginning last year, Five Below stores began selling products well above the namesake $5.00 threshold. Some products such as scooters go for $25 or a refrigerator for you skin-care items (really?) for $35. The company raised prices on roughly 55% of their products which are sourced from China, in part to offset tariffs. Still, roughly 80% of items sold were $5 and under.
Source: Wall Street Journal
Guacamole Time
Good news for Super Bowl guacamole lovers. Mexico has shipped a historic 127,000 tons of avocados to the U.S. in the four weeks leading up to the Super Bowl—an 11% increase over last year. More has come from California, Peru and Columbia forcing prices as low as $14.00 per 10 kg boxes. Large Hass avocados average $1.02, down from ~$2.49 last year. Better rain patterns in Mexico and more competition are the cause. Enjoy!!
Source: Mexico Business News
Just In Time
After growing complaints of the cost of your favorite salty snacks, Pepsico is cutting the prices up to 15% on Doritos, Cheetos, Lays and Tostitios. Cheaper guacamole and cheaper chips, what could be better as the Super Bowl approaches. The current line on the game has the New England Patriots as 4.5 point underdogs.
Source: Wall Street Journal
